African Studies Research Seminar: Does Ethnic Stacking Work?: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Ascriptive Loyalty for Coup Proofing

Conveners: Miles Tendi and Michael Odijie

Speaker: Prof. Kristen A. Harkness University of St. Andrews

Ethnic stacking, or recruiting and promoting soldiers based on shared identity, is a prolific form of coup proofing in autocratic regimes. Leaders attempt to ensure the loyalty of security institutions through a triple bind of ethnic affinity, ethnically-based patronage, and publicly tied fates. Yet, the process of building a coethnic army can backfire as it both discriminates against existing out-group officers and provokes tensions between sub-groups—igniting preemptive coups and competition for control over security institutions. This article leverages new data on ethnic stacking practices in Africa to conduct the first large-N analysis of how ascriptive coup proofing impacts leader tenure. I find that ethnically restructuring the armed forces does indeed create a strong backlash, with coup risk increasing in autocracies by nearly 200% over the first three years of such efforts. However, ethnic stacking still significantly extends leader tenure (by around 65%), in part by decreasing the long-term risk of coup attempts (by over 30%). Thus, if autocratic leaders can survive the process of building an ethnic army, they can obviate threats emanating from within the military and deeply entrench their rule.

Prof. Kristen A. Harkness
Director, Institute for the Study of War and Strategy
School of International Relations
University of St. Andrews